Northern Ireland: The 2003 Election

CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS W eb
Northern Ireland: The 2003 Election
KristinArchick
Analys t i n European Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and T r ade Division
Summary
On November 26, 2003, voters i n Northern Ireland went to the polls to elect a n ew
Assembly, which has b een suspended s ince 2002 because of ongoing difficulties i n t he
peace process. Hardline political parties o n bot h s ides of the unionist-nationalist divide
surpassed t heir more moderate rivals, d imming t he prospect s for restoring Bel fast’s
dev o l ved government soon. This report will not be updated. See also, CRS Report
RS21333, Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, and CRS Report R L30368, Northern
Ireland: Implementation o f t he Peace Agreement during t he 106^th Congress .
Background
Since 1969, over 3,200 people h ave d ied as a result of political violence in Northern
Irel and, which i s a part of the United Kingdom. The conflict, which has its origins i n t he
1921 division of Ireland, has reflected a s tru ggl e b etween different national, cultural, and
religious identities.¹ The P rotestant m ajority (56%) i n Northern Ireland defines itsel f as
British and largely s upports continued i ncorporation i n t he UK (unionists); t he Catholic
minority (42%) considers itsel f Irish and m any C at h o l i c s des ire a united Ireland
(nationalists). For years, the British and Irish governments s ought to facilitate a political
settlement. T he Good Friday Agreement w as finally reached on April 10, 1998. It calls
for d evolved government — t he transf e r o f p o w e r from London to Belfast — and
es tablishes a Northern Irel and Assembly and Executive C ommittee i n which unionists and
nationalists share power, a North-South M inisterial Council, and a British-Irish C ouncil.
It also contains provisions on decommissioning (disarmament), policing, human rights,
and p ri soners. T he agreem ent recogn i z es t h at a change i n t he st at us of Nort hern Irel and
can only come about with the consent o f t he majori t y o f its people. Voters in Northern
Ireland and the R epublic of Ireland approved t he accord in refe r e n d a on May 22, 1998.
Elections to the n ew Assembly took place on J une 25, 1998.

¹ In 1 921, the mostly Catholic, s outhern part of Ir eland won independence from Britain. T he
resulting Republic of Ir eland occupies about five-s ixths of t he island of Ir eland; Northern Ir eland
occupies the r emaining one-s ixth.
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

Nonet h el ess, implem ent at i o n o f t he peace agreem ent h as been di ffi cul t , and s poradi c
violen ce f r om dissident groups continues. In stability in the d evolved government has
been the rule rather t han t he ex ception. D ecommissioning and police reforms have been
key s ticking points, and a loss of trust o n both s ides of th e c o n f l i c t h as caused t he
devolved government to be suspended s ince October 2002. Observers note t hat unionists
remain skeptical o f t h e IRA’s commitment to non-violence, while nationalists worry
about the p ace of demilitarization, police ref orms, and loyalist p aramilitary activity.
Since t he suspension of the devolved government, London and Dublin have led t alks
with Northern Irel and’s political parties t o t ry to find a way forward. Elections to the
Northern Ireland Assembly, o rigi nally scheduled for M ay 1, 2003, were postponed b y UK
Prime Minister Tony Bl ai r t wice in order t o give t he parties m ore time to negotiate. On
October 21, 2003, a deal to restore devolution appeared within reach and London
announced that Assembly elections would b e h eld o n November 26, 2003. However, this
deal failed t o m at erialize when unionists criticized the IRA’s lack of transparency
regarding t he quantity and t ype of arms disposed of in its third act of decommissioning.
On October 28, 2003, London announced that the Assembly electio n w o u l d go ahead
despite the continued s uspension o f t he devolved government.
The 2003 Assembly E lection
The November 26, 2003 election p roduced a s ignificant s hift in the b alance of power
in Northern Irel and politics. Reverend Ian P ai sley’s hardline Dem ocratic Unionist Party
(DUP ), which l argely opposes the 1998 peace agreement, emerged as t he largest p arty in
the 108-member Assembly with 30 seats. It overtook the m ore m oderate Ulster Unionist
Party (UUP) as t he dominant party among Pro t e s tant voters. The UUP, l ed by David
Trimble, s lipped one seat to 27. On the nationalist s ide, Sinn Fein — t he political wing
of t h e IR A — m ade s i gni fi cant el ect oral gai n s. Led b y Gerry Adam s, S i nn Fei n surpassed
the m ore centrist S ocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP ) b y s ix seats t o b ecome the
leading p arty among Catholic voters. The non-sectarian Alliance P ar ty held onto its six
seat s, whi l e t h e rem ai ni ng t h ree went t o t wo smaller unionist parties and an independent
candidate.
2003 Assembly Election R esults
P arty # of Seats # of Seats %of 1^st
+/ — P ref erence
Votes
^Dem^o^cratic^Un^ioⁿⁱ^st^P^a^rty⁽^DUP⁾ 30 +10 26%
^Ulster^Un^ioⁿⁱ^st^P^a^rty⁽^UUP⁾ 27 -1 23%
^Sinn^Fein 24 +6 24%
^Social^Dem^o^cratic^an^d^L^abou^r^P^arty^(SDL^P⁾ 18 -6 17%
^Oth^e^rs 9 -9 10%
^S^o^u^r^ce:^“^N^ort^h^ern^Irel^aⁿ^d^A^s^s^e^m^b^l^y^R^e^s^u^l^t^s^,”^BBC^N^e^w^s^,^N^ov^em^ber^28,^2003.

The results of the Assembly el ection were not completely unex pect ed. Over t he last
few years, the DUP and S inn Fein h ave b een gaining greater p u b l i c support i n t heir
respective constituencies. In t he J une 2001 UK general and local elections, t he DUP and
Sinn Fein made substantial gains at the ex pense of the UUP and S DLP. Many unionists
have grown i ncreas ingl y frustrated with the s low pace of IR A decommissioning, des pite
what they vi ew as repeat ed concessi ons t o nat i onalists on issues ranging from establishing
the power-sharing government to police reforms. C onsequently, t he DUP’s h a r d l i n e
stance against sharing power with nationalists who refuse to give up their weapons
resonated with many unionist voters i n t he Assembly elections. S ome analysts contend
that the divisions in the UUP between pro- and anti-agreem ent candidates m ay al so have
h u r t t h e party’s credibility with voters. As for t he nationalists, S inn Fein’s s uccess h as
been largely attributed to its evolution i nt o a less militant but well-oiled and well-funded
election m achine t hat appeals espe cially to younger Catholic voters with less vivid
memor i e s o f IR A v iolence. A number o f observers also suggest that Sinn Fein has
skillfully portrayed itsel f as t he nationalist party that has won significant concessions from
the UK o n t roop withdrawals and prisoner releases.²
Implications for t he Peace Process
Most anal ys ts assert that the outcome of the Assembly el ection will make restoring
Belfas t’s devolved government difficult in the near term, and some foresee a prolonged
st al em at e.³ The DUP maintains t hat i t will not negotiate direct l y, l et al one go into
government, with Sinn Fein as long as the IRA continues t o ex i st a n d hold onto its
weapons. R everend P aisley has t hreatened to ex pel DUP members who talk to Sinn Fein.
The DUP has also called for a re-negotiation of t he Good Friday Agreem ent. The British
a n d Irish governments h ave announced a review o f t he agreement t o b egin i n J a n u a r y

2004, but insist that its “fundamental principl es” — including power-sharing, t he North-

South i nstitutions, and the principle of consent — are not open for discussion, an d t h at
the p eace accord remains t he only v iable political framework.
London and Dublin admit that the election outcome poses increased challenges to
reinstating Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions, but stress that there i s no s ense
that the political situation could l ead to a s ecurity crisis. W hile UK offici al s concede t hat
reaching a political deal between the DUP an d S inn Fein w i l l n o t b e easy, they remain
hop eful that the l ure of office will moderate the DUP and m ake i t m ore willing t o
nego tiate. M any analysts pin hopes for progress on the younger and m ore p ragm atic DUP
deput y l eader P et er R obi nson, who h as st at ed t h at t h e DUP i s prepared t o work for l ast i n g
political stability in Northern Irel and and denied depictions of the DUP as a “wreckers”
party. Others suggest that Robinson’s room to maneuver will still be limited by P ai sley’s
rhetoric and grip o n t he party. Some commentators p redict that the DUP may eventually
be willing t o deal with Sinn Fein, but will stick with its hardline cam paign until after t he

² Gl enn Frankel, “Election s ets back accord in Northern Ir eland,” Washington Post , November
29, 2003; Garret FitzGerald, “ Hope lies i n i nevitable e volution of DUP,” Irish Times, November

29, 2003; “T ime f or Plan B i n Northern Ireland,” Daily Telegraph, November 29, 2003.

³ Comme ntators s ugge st that London and Dublin had l ong feared that the e me rgence of the DUP
and Sinn Fein as t he dominant parties would s tymi e t he peace process, and t his was a key reason
why London especially had w a n t e d t o r estore devolution before t he Assembly election i n t he
hopes t hat doing so would bolster the political fortunes of t he UUP.

J une 2004 European Parliament election and possibly t he 2005 UK general election i n t he
hopes o f m aking further electoral gains against the UUP.⁴
Meanwhile, UUP leader David Trimble cl ai m s that the DUP won t he el ection by
selling a “fal se bill of goods ” a nd t h at the UUP will bounce back. He s tresses t hat t he
DUP will not be able to deliver an alternative solution for Northern Ireland’s unionists,
and t hat t his will become cl ear quickly. Trimble predicts that efforts t o res tore devolution
will remain deadlocked, and hopes t hat unionists will return to the UUP once t hey realiz e
that the IRA will not gi ve up its arms for t he DUP. He h as suggested that London should
cal l new el ections in six m onths if the power-sharing institutions remain suspended .
T r i m b l e has also vowed to retain his post as party leader, des pite calls from s ome a n t i -
agreem ent UUP members for him t o s tep down i n light of the election outcome.
On the nationalist side, both S inn F ei n a n d the S DLP rej ect any attempts to
renegotiate the Good Friday Agreem ent. Sinn Fein stresses t hat unlike t he DUP, i t i s
willing t o engage i n dialogue and to listen t o t he DUP’s concerns. S inn Fei n l eader Gerry
Adam s h as al so assert ed t h at t h e DUP ’s em ergence as t he dom i n ant uni oni st part y m ust
not serve as a brake on implementing other aspects of the peace agreement, including
continued police reforms, demilitarization, and equality and human rights measures.⁵
London and Dublin hope the upcoming review o f t he peace agreement will provide
an opportunity to break the d eadlock in the p eace process. Commentators point out that
the t wo governments h ave d efined the p eace acco rd’s “fundamental principles” b roadly,
thereby l eaving t he door open t o s ome reforms that may h elp s atisfy certain DUP
demands. T he DUP has asserted, however, t hat its participation i n t he review will depend
on whether t he review includes v ital i ssues su ch as policin g and north-south relations.
Some pres s reports al so speculate that the review could l ead to changi ng the Assembly’s
voting rules to allow t he UUP and nationalist parties t o form a d e v o l ved government
without DUP approval. Others suggest this is unlikely because it would erode the
principle o f cross-community support and further i solate anti-agreement unionists.⁶
U.S. Perspectives
The Bush Administration continues t o view t he Good Friday Agreement as t he best
fram ework for a l ast i n g p eace i n Nort hern Irel and. Top U.S . advi sor for Nort hern Irel and,
Am bassador R i chard Haass, vi si t ed Bel fast short l y aft er t he el ect i on. He recogn i z ed t h at
the poll reflected unionist frustration with the s tatus quo, but asserted that he did not
bel i eve t h e p eace process w as i n cri s i s . H aass s t ressed t hat any event u al changes t o t he
peace agreement m ust respect its fundament al principles. M e m b e r s of Congress also
actively s upport t he peace process and the full implementation o f t he agreement.

⁴ “NI political deal not easy,” BBC News , November 30, 2003; Gerry Moriarty, “DUP may wait
for more gains before talking t o Sinn Fein,” Irish Times, December 1, 2003.
⁵ “Paisley’s party t ops NI poll,” BBC News , November 28, 2003; “Adams says Belfast
Agreement cannot be subverted,” Irish Times, December 1, 2003; Frank M illar, “A crisis for t he
Agreement...and for unionism,” Irish Times, December 2, 2003.
⁶ J ohn Murray Brown, “Deadlock spells more trouble at Stormont,” Financial Times , December

1, 2003; “DUP wa rning ove r r eview,” BBC Ne ws , December 6, 2003.