Iraq Coalition: Public Opinion Indicators in Selected European Countries

CRS Report for Congress
Iraq Coalition: Public Opinion Indicators in
Selected European Countries
Julie Kim
Specialist in International Relations
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
Several European countries currently contribute military forces to U.S.-led coalition
operations to stabilize Iraq, one year after the start of the war against former Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein. Many European governments have sent troops to Iraq despite strong
domestic opposition, although the level of opposition, as measured by opinion polls,
varies from country to country and can show changes over time. The March 2004
terrorist attacks in Madrid and the announcement by the new Spanish government that
it would likely remove Spanish troops from Iraq by July 2004 have raised questions
about the sustainability of other countries’ troop deployments. This report surveys
selected public opinion indicators in key European coalition countries. It may be
updated as new polling data becomes available. See related CRS Report RL31843, Iraq:
International Attitudes to Operation Iraqi Freedom and Reconstruction.
Overview
Following deadly terrorist attacks in Madrid, Spain, on March 11, 2004, Spanish
voters ousted the incumbent conservative and U.S.-allied government in favor of the
Socialist Party in parliamentary elections on March 14. Although many factors likely
contributed to this outcome, one of them appears to have been the outgoing Spanish
government’s strong support for U.S. policy in Iraq and contribution of Spanish forces to
the U.S.-led coalition, despite widespread opposition at home to the war in Iraq. Socialist
Party leader and Prime Minister-designate José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has said he
would uphold his campaign promise to withdraw Spanish troops from coalition operations
in Iraq unless they become part of a U.N.-sanctioned force.
Although no other European government has echoed Zapatero’s position, this series
of events has increased speculation that other coalition partners in Iraq may face similar
pressures from their electorates, which could undermine the ability of coalition
governments to sustain their forces in Iraq for a long period of time. The Madrid
bombings, terrorism, and Iraq may become prominent issues for voters across Europe in
the upcoming June 2004 elections to the European Parliament. The United States,

Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

meanwhile, seeks to broaden international participation in stabilization operations in Iraq
in order to relieve heavily deployed U.S. forces there, and as the United States prepares
to turn over sovereignty to the Iraqis by July 2004.
This report briefly examines selected public opinion indicators in key European
countries that currently contribute to the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. Overall, polls over the
past year show that Spain was no anomaly in terms of strong public opposition to military
involvement in Iraq. Some European governments appeared to support U.S. policy in Iraq
in defiance of, rather than as a result of, public sentiment at home. The Bush
Administration contends that the war in Iraq has reduced the danger of global terrorism.
However, a majority in public opinion surveys throughout Europe contend that the war
in Iraq has increased rather than diminished that threat. At the same time, some opinion
surveys show that public support across Europe for military operations in Iraq would
increase substantially if the United Nations were to authorize or lead peacekeeping and
reconstruction efforts.
The survey data referenced in this report derive from several sources, as noted; as
such, varying methodologies are reflected that may not permit cross-country comparisons.
Most polls cited in this report were conducted prior to the March 11 Madrid terrorist
attacks. Multiple country surveys are referenced at the end of the report.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in particular have been
the most stalwart supporters of the U.S. case for going to war in Iraq and U.S.-led
stabilization efforts. After the United States, Britain provides the largest contingent of
military forces Iraq (at a current strength of 8,200 troops) and commands a multinational
division in southern Iraq.
As the major combat phase of the war in Iraq was winding down in April 2003, a
solid majority of the British expressed “approval of the military action in Iraq” (65%) and
the “U.K.’s participation in it” (64%), according to a survey released by the U.S.
Department of State in May 2003. By the end of 2003, still two-thirds (66%) favored the
presence of British forces serving in Iraq.¹ Nevertheless, criticism of the Blair
government has grown, with many in Britain coming to believe that Blair had misled the
public about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein.²
In March 2004, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (henceforth,
the “Pew Center”), released results of a multinational survey taken in February 2004 that
showed increasingly negative British views on Iraq. Among the findings of the Pew
Center’s study for Britain:

¹ U.S. Department of State, Office of Research, “Opinion Analysis: Key west European still
mostly negative about military action in Iraq,”May 14, 2003; “Opinion Analysis: British Public:
Keep transatlantic ties strong,” December 16, 2003.
² Economist Intelligence Unit, “U.K. Country Outlook,” March 3, 2004.

^!In response to the question, Did Britain make the right or wrong decision
to use military force in Iraq? — 43% said it was the right decision, and

47% said it was the wrong decision.

^!Has the war in Iraq helped or hurt the war on terrorism? — 36% said it
helped, 50% said it hurt, and 5% said it had no effect. (A different poll
taken around the same time showed that 67% said the war in Iraq
increased the threat of terrorism, 9% said it decreased the threat, and 21%
said it had no effect.)³
^!Who could do the best job at helping the Iraqi people form a stable
government, the U.S. and its allies or the United Nations? — 10% said
the U.S. and its allies, 82% said the U.N., 4% said both, and 2% said
neither.
Italy
Italy contributes the third largest national contingent of troops to Iraq, with nearly
3,000 military and paramilitary troops serving in the U.K.-led multinational division in
the south. Following the Spanish parliamentary elections in March 2004, the conservative
Italian government under Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi pledged to keep Italian troops
in Iraq. Berlusconi also expressed steadfast support for the Italian military role in Iraq
after a November 2003 suicide bomb attack on coalition forces in Iraq killed nearly 20
Italian troops, the largest single number of Italian military casualties since World War II.
In contrast, Italian center-left opposition party leaders have recently said that they would
support an end to Italy’s military role in Iraq.⁴
In April 2003, the Italian public seemed split on the war in Iraq. According to one
poll, 55% disapproved of the war, compared with 42% who expressed support. At the
same time, 55% approved of the Italian government’s decision to open Italian bases and
airspace to coalition forces.⁵
Italian polls through the rest of 2003 and early 2004 showed a consistently even split
in Italian public opinion between those in favor of or against withdrawing Italian troops
from Iraq, with a slightly greater percentage in favor of withdrawal. However, polls taken
after the November 2003 suicide attacks against Italian personnel in Iraq suggested a
growing resolve to see through Italy’s commitment to Iraqi stabilization rather than pull
out.⁶
Spain’s announcement after the March 11 Madrid attacks that it would withdraw its
troops from Iraq has appeared to influence public opinion in Italy. In a mid-March poll

³ AP/Ipsos poll, released March 5, 2004. See source note.
⁴ “Prodi would end Italy’s role in Iraq,” International Herald Tribune, March 29, 2004.
⁵ U.S. Department of State, Office of Research, May 14, 2003 poll.
⁶ Newsweek International, November 24, 2003.

that asked, Do you favor or oppose a decision similar to Spain’s to withdraw troops by
June 30?, 67% said they were in favor versus 26% opposed.⁷
A February 2004 poll from AP/Ipsos showed results in Italy similar to those in
Britain on a few related questions, including:
^!In response to the question, Has the military action in Iraq increased,
decreased, or had no effect on the threat of terrorism? — 65% said it
increased the threat, 6% said it decreased the threat, 20% said it had no
effect, and 9% said they were unsure.
Poland
Poland has commanded a multinational peacekeeping division in central Iraq since
late summer 2003 and contributes about 2,500 troops to the peacekeeping operation. In
the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid terrorist attacks, Polish leaders have also pledged
to keep Polish forces in Iraq “as long as needed,” although President Aleksander
Kwasniewski publicly criticized apparent intelligence discrepancies regarding Saddam
Hussein’s presumed arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Polish officials and the
public at large have become increasingly concerned about the potential for terrorist attacks
at home. In addition, after the recent announcement by embattled Polish Prime Minister
Leszek Miller that he would resign in May 2004, Polish policy on Iraq is likely to come
into greater play as a political issue as a new government is formed, or if early elections
are held. A coalition partner in the center-left government has called for a timetable for
the withdrawal of Polish troops from current military operations in Iraq.
The Polish polling company CBOS has run regular surveys of Poland’s participation
in Iraq operations. Their polling results have shown moderately varying levels of support
for and opposition to Polish troop involvement in Iraq. In general, a slightly greater share
of Poles have opposed Polish troops serving with multinational stabilization forces in
Iraq. An early March 2004 poll showed that 42% of Poles backed Poland’s involvement
in Iraq while 53% were opposed.
A November 2003 surveyed showed that 75% of those polled said they feared Poland
would become the target of a terrorist attack, several months before the Madrid
bombings.⁸
Spain
As noted above, the former Spanish government’s staunchly pro-U.S. position on
Iraq had become a prominent electoral issue even before Madrid was rocked by terrorist
bombs on March 11. Spain currently has about 1,300 troops serving in the Polish-led
division in central Iraq.

⁷ La Repubblica (Rome), in the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, March 16, 2004.
⁸ Agence France Presse, November 28, 2003.

At the start of the war in Iraq in March 2003, polls showed that up to 90% of
Spaniards opposed the U.S.-led war. The extent of Spanish disapproval exceeded all
other major European countries, including those whose governments opposed the war,
such as France and Germany.
In the run-up to the March 2004 parliamentary elections in Spain, but before the
March 11 terrorist attacks in Madrid, opinion polls showed that the party of former Prime
Minister Aznar was still slightly ahead of the Socialist opposition, despite no evidence of
increasing support for Aznar’s policies in Iraq or suggestion that Aznar’s successor as
party leader would change course on Iraq. Widespread predictions of a conservative
victory (prior to March 11) suggest that the Iraq issue alone would probably not have
determined the election outcome. Rather, the bombings themselves coupled with the
Aznar government’s early response to them (including its mistaken charge against the
Spanish terrorist group ETA) appear to account for the late surge among Spanish voters
for the Socialists.
In a poll from February 2004, 66% of those polled in Spain thought the Iraq war had
increased the threat of terrorism, 8% thought it had decreased, 17% said it had no effect,
and 9% were not sure. In the same poll, an 85% majority said they were worried about the
threat of terrorism in their home country.⁹
Turkey
Turkey denied permission in March 2003 for U.S. troops to open a northern front
into Iraq through Turkey but Ankara has since opened bases and airspace to U.S.-led
stabilization operations. Turkey does not currently contribute troops to coalition
stabilization operations but maintains a small military presence in northern Iraq and
remains highly concerned about instability along Turkey’s southern border. U.S. officials
have pressed the Turkish government to contribute to multinational peacekeeping efforts
in Iraq. Turkey was the target of two terrorist bombing attacks in November 2003.
In the run-up to the 2003 war in Iraq, overwhelmingly strong anti-war sentiment in
Turkey contributed to the parliament’s decision to block access to coalition forces through
Turkish territory. Since then, opinion polls have shown greater moderation of Turkish
views on coalition efforts in Iraq (as well as on opinions of the United States in general).¹⁰
However, in September 2003, still nearly two-thirds of Turks surveyed opposed sending
Turkish troops to Iraq. In addition, 73% of those polled believed the United States would
fail in its efforts to stabilize Iraq.¹¹
In the March 2004 Pew Center survey, Turks polled in May 2003 were evenly
divided on whether Iraqis will be better off or worse off in the long run, as a result of the
U.S.-led campaign to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Other questions from the
Pew Center survey showed the following results from February 2004 polling:

⁹ Ap/Ipsos poll, March 5, 2004.
¹⁰ Department of State, Office of Research, “Opinion Analysis: Turkish opinion of U.S. turns
corner,” January 14, 2004.
¹¹ “Turkey weighs sending troops to Iraq,” Associated Press, September 5, 2003.

^!Did Turkey make the right or wrong decision not to use military force
against Iraq? — 72% said it was the right decision, and 22% said it was
the wrong decision.
^!Has the war in Iraq helped or hurt the war on terrorism? — 24% said it
helped, 56% said it hurt, and 8% said it had no effect.
^!Who could do the best job at helping the Iraqi people form a stable
government, the U.S. and its allies or the United Nations? — 11% said
the U.S. and its allies, 59% said the U.N., 6% said both, and 10% said
neither.
For Additional Reading
Associated Press/Ipsos News Center. “Many in neighboring countries, Europe believe
Iraq has increased terrorist threat,” March 5, 2004. Available at [http://www.ipsos-
na.com].
The Economist. “Those awkward hearts and minds.” April 1, 2003.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States. “Transatlantic Trends 2003.” Available
at [http://www.transatlantictrends.org]. Released September 4, 2003.
The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. A Year After Iraq War: Mistrust
of America in Europe Ever Higher, Muslim Anger Persists. Available at
[http://www.people-press.org]. Released March 16, 2004.
U.S. Department of State, Office of Research. “Opinion Analysis: Key West European
still mostly negative about military action in Iraq,” May 14, 2003.