Mexico's 2006 Elections

CRS Report for Congress
Mexico’s 2006 Elections
Colleen W. Cook
Analyst in Latin American Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
Mexico held national elections for a new president and congress on July 2, 2006.
Conservative Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) narrowly defeated
Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)
in a highly contested election. Final results of the presidential election were only
announced after all legal challenges had been settled. On September 5, 2006, the
Elections Tribunal found that although business groups illegally interfered in the
election, the effect of the interference was insufficient to warrant an annulment of the
vote, and the tribunal declared PAN-candidate Felipe Calderón president-elect. PRD
candidate López Obrador, who rejected the Tribunal’s decision, was named the
“legitimate president” of Mexico by a National Democratic Convention on September
16. The electoral campaign touched on issues of interest to the United States including
migration, border security, drug trafficking, energy policy, and the future of Mexican
relations with Venezuela and Cuba. This report will not be updated. See also CRS
Report RL32724, Mexico-U.S. Relations: Issues for the 109^th Congress, by Colleen W.
Cook; CRS Report RL32735, Mexico-United States Dialogue on Migration and Border
Issues, by Colleen W. Cook; and CRS Report RL32934, U.S.-Mexico Economic
Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications, by M. Angeles Villarreal.
Background
Mexico held presidential and congressional elections on July 2, 2006. The
presidential vote was the second since the end of the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s
(PRI) 71-year authoritarian rule in 2000. President Vicente Fox of the National Action
Party (PAN) was constitutionally prohibited from seeking re-election. The three major
candidates were populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Party of the Democratic
Revolution (PRD), conservative Felipe Calderón Hinojosa of the PAN, and Roberto
Madrazo of the PRI. Mexican law requires only a plurality of votes in a presidential race
and does not provide for a second round of voting.

Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

Presidential Election Results and Aftermath
After a highly contested election, PAN candidate Felipe Calderón was named
president-elect of Mexico on September 5, 2006, and is due to be sworn into office on
December 1, 2006. According to the final vote count, Calderón won just under 36% of
the vote, defeating PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador by less than 234,000
votes. Voter turnout was 59%.
Although Mexico’s Federal Elections Institute (IFE) planned to announce results on
July 2, the vote was too close to call. At the end of the preliminary vote count, Calderón
held a slight lead over López Obrador, prompting the PRD candidate to call for a full
recount of the votes. López Obrador challenged the July election results, alleging fraud
at the polling places and illegal interference in the election by President Fox and
conservative business groups. Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), whose
decisions cannot be appealed, issued a series of decisions related to fraud allegations in
the presidential campaign and vote. First, it ordered a recount of 9% of polling places in
early August. In a unanimous decision issued August 28, the Tribunal held that although
there were some irregularities, the election was fair. The Tribunal annulled nearly 238,000
votes as a result of irregularities. On September 5, 2006, the Tribunal ruled unanimously
that, although President Fox’s comments jeopardized the election, they did not amount
to illegal interference in the campaign. The Tribunal also found that commercials paid
for by business groups at the end of the campaign were illegal but that the impact of the
ads was insufficient to warrant the annulment of the presidential election. As a result of
these findings, the Tribunal named Felipe Calderón president-elect on September 5,

2006.¹

After the vote, Andrés Manuel López Obrador led a campaign of civil disobedience,
including the blockade of Mexico City’s principal avenue, Paseo de la Reforma, until
mid-September. It reportedly cost Mexico City businesses over $500 million in revenue.
On September 1, 2006, PRD members of congress prevented President Fox from
delivering the state of the union address at the Mexican congress. López Obrador rejected
the election tribunal’s September 5 ruling and was named the “legitimate president” of
Mexico at a democratic convention held on September 16 at the Zocalo, Mexico City’s
main square. The PRD candidate is due to be sworn in as president of a “parallel
government” on November 20. The convention also created three committees: one
responsible for political negotiation, another to coordinate future civil disobedience, and
a third to call a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. It is not clear how this
parallel government will operate or how much support it has. In mid-September PRD
founder Cuahtémoc Cárdenas criticized López Obrador’s tactics as undemocratic and
criticized him for surrounding himself with advisors who helped to orchestrate what many
believe to be Carlos Salinas de Gortari’s fraudulent defeat of Cuahtémoc Cárdenas in the

1988 elections.²

¹ Arturo Zárate Vite, “Tribunal ratifica ventaja de Felipe,” El Universal, Aug. 29, 2006; “Mexico:
Calderón Moves Closer to Presidency,” LatinNews Daily, Aug. 29, 2006; “Declara Trife
Presidente a Calderón,” Reforma, Sept. 5, 2006; and, Manuel Roig-Franzia, “Court Names
Calderón Mexico’s President-elect,” Washington Post, Sept. 5, 2006.
² “Mexico: López Obrador Declared ‘Legitimate President,’” LatinNews Daily, Sept. 18, 2006;
and “Critica CCS intolerancia perredista,” La Reforma, Sept. 14, 2006.

Profiles of Major Presidential Candidates
Felipe Calderón Hinojosa. Harvard-trained economist Felipe Calderón, the PAN
presidential candidate, has been active in the conservative PAN since his youth. He
served two terms in the Chamber of Deputies (1991-1994 and 2000-2003), was PAN
party president (1996-1999) and Energy Minister (2003-2004) under President Vicente
Fox. Calderón surprised many by winning the PAN nomination, since many observers
anticipated that former Interior Minister Santiago Creel would easily win the nomination.
Although Calderón was relatively unknown to the Mexican electorate in December 2005,
by mid-June 2006 polls showed that he was in a tight race with PRD candidate Andrés
Manuel López Obrador. Calderón’s rise in the polls was believed to be the result of
missteps by López Obrador and negative advertisements claiming the PRD candidate is
a “danger to Mexico.”³
Running under the campaign slogan “Felipe Calderón: Jobs President (presidente de
empleo),” Calderón maintained that Mexico’s main problem is a shortage of well-paid
jobs, which leads many Mexicans to migrate to the United States. He stressed that
investment and competitiveness are keys to economic growth and job creation. Calderón
pledged to create a positive investment climate by pursuing sound macroeconomic
policies, balanced and sustainable budgets, and social investment; strengthening the rule
of law; and creating funds to support social investment during economic downturns.⁴ He
also expressed support for a development plan, similar to the European Union plan that
stimulated the Irish and Spanish economies, funded by NAFTA members to increase jobs
and reduce migration from under-developed regions of Mexico. Calderón also proposed
opening Mexico’s oil sector to private investment in the form of joint-ventures with the
state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) to further explore Mexican oil reserves,
particularly potential deep-water reserves in the Gulf of Mexico. Calderón pledged to
address Mexico’s public security crisis by, among other measures, combating corruption;
creating an agency to combat drug trafficking; extraditing criminals; unifying all federal
police forces; and creating a national crime database to better understand the nature of
criminal activity in Mexico. Calderón indicated he will pursue an active foreign policy,
and work to restore relations with Venezuela, even though he does not support its
ideology.⁵
Andrés Manuel López Obrador. PRD presidential candidate Andrés Manuel
López Obrador, a native of the southern state of Tabasco, studied political science and
public administration at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) before
returning to Tabasco to work with the Chontal Indian community. In the late 1980s, he
aligned himself with Cuahtémoc Cárdenas, who had left the Institutional Revolutionary

³ “People Profile - Felipe Calderón Hinojosa,” LatinNews, Oct. 4, 2005 and Will Weissert,
“Mexican Candidate Says U.S. Investment Could Help Stem Illegal Immigration,” San Diego
Union-Tribune, June 9, 2006.
⁴ Felipe Calderón campaign website, accessed at [http://www.felipe.org.mx] on June 14, 2006.
⁵ Ibid; Laurence Iliff, “Mexico’s Final Presidential Debate Focuses on Drug Crackdown,” Dallas
Morning News, June 7, 2006; Mark Stevenson, “Mexico Stands at Crossroads on Energy Policy;
Oil Boom May Lead to Bust,” San Diego Union-Tribune, June 13, 2006; and Will Weissert,
“Mexican Candidate Says U.S. Investment Could Help Stem Illegal Immigration,” San Diego
Union-Tribune, June 9, 2006.

Party (PRI), and founded the PRD in 1989. López Obrador was named party president
for Tabasco in 1989, served as national party president (1996-1999), and was elected
mayor of Mexico City (2000-2005). Extremely popular as mayor, he was expected to win
the presidency easily in 2006. He led in the polls until late April 2006, when he lost
support likely due to comments deemed disrespectful of President Fox and because of his
refusal to take part in the April 25, 2006, presidential debates. In mid-June 2006, polls
again showed López Obrador with a slight lead over PAN candidate Felipe Calderón.
López Obrador’s campaign slogan was “For the good of all, the poor first (Por el
bien de todos, primeros los pobres).” Not surprisingly, then, many of his 50 campaign
pledges focused on poverty reduction, job creation, indigenous rights, and infrastructure
investment. Proposed measures included guaranteeing a pension to all Mexicans over 70
years of age; protecting the rights of the indigenous and reducing poverty in indigenous
communities; expanding access to education and improving its quality; increasing access
to health care; creating incentives for maquila operators to stay in Mexico; and building
high-speed rail lines. Of particular interest to the United States was his pledge to re-open
NAFTA negotiations to protect Mexican corn and bean farmers. López Obrador opposes
opening the state-owned oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), to private
investment, and charges that PEMEX’s inefficiency is the result of corruption and a
bloated bureaucracy. He planned to make Mexico self-sufficient in gasoline within three
years of his taking office. López Obrador indicated that he would focus on Mexico’s
internal problems, not foreign policy, as president. Nevertheless, López Obrador stated
that he will have a positive relationship with the United States. He planned to reduce
emigration by addressing poverty and job creation. López Obrador, like Calderón, said
he would be an advocate for the rights of Mexican migrants in the United States. In the
June 6 debate he indicated that he would employ Mexico’s consulates as branches of the
Attorney General’s office to protect Mexican migrants from discrimination. During the
debate, López Obrador also stated that he would increase the role of the army to combat
narcotics trafficking. Some observers feared that López Obrador would become an ally
of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, while others disputed this, pointing to the
candidate’s statements that he will focus on Mexico, not foreign policy.⁶
Roberto Madrazo Pintado. Another native of Tabasco, attorney Roberto
Madrazo Pintado, was the PRI candidate for president. The son of a prominent PRI leader,
he has served as a federal deputy (1976 and 1991-1993), senator (1988-1991), Governor
of Tabasco (1994-2000), and national PRI party president (2002-2005). Opinion polls
consistently put Madrazo in third place throughout the campaign. Already a divisive
candidate within the PRI, his poor showing in polls led some PRI leaders to shift their
support to Calderón or López Obrador while encouraging PRI voters to do the same rather

⁶ Andrés Manuel López Obrador campaign website, [http://www.lopezobrador.org.mx/], accessed
June 15, 2006; Dane Schiller and Sean Mattson, “Five Presidential Candidates Square Off in
Debate,” San Antonio Express-News, June 7, 2006; Manuel Roig-Franzia, “Mexican Presidential
Hopefuls Vow to Seek Immigration Pact,” Washington Post, June 7, 2006; and, Laurence Iliff,
“Mexico’s Final Presidential Debate Focuses on Drug Crackdown,” Dallas Morning News, June

7, 2006.

than “waste” votes on Madrazo. On May 30, the PRI expelled 28 leaders who endorsed
one of the two leading candidates.⁷
During the campaign, Madrazo pledged to create jobs, improve security, facilitate
remittances from the United States to Mexico, modernize the energy sector by permitting
joint ventures between PEMEX and private companies, and increase the number of
Mexicans who benefit from stable macroeconomic policies and export growth. He
proposed shifting public investment to infrastructure and public works and improving
linkages between the export sector and the internal market. He supported an immigration
accord with the United States and said that more job creation is needed to prevent
Mexican emigration. Madrazo also pledged to improve public security by placing federal
police forces under a unified command and expanding the authority of the “preventive
police” to include the investigation and prosecution of crimes.⁸
Congressional Elections
Mexico has a bicameral legislature comprised of a 500-member Chamber of
Deputies and a 128-member Senate. Mexican voters elected a completely new congress
on July 2, 2006. Consecutive re-election is prohibited. Deputies are elected to three-year
terms with 300 elected by direct vote and 200 proportionally elected from party lists in
five 40-member districts. Senators are elected to six-year terms. Each of Mexico’s 32
states directly elects three senators; the two from the slate winning the plurality of votes
and the first candidate from the second-place list. Another 32 senators are elected by
proportional vote from national party lists.
Both the PAN and PRD gained significant representation in the new congress sworn
in on September 1, 2006, while the PRI was significantly weakened in both houses. The
PRI delegation in the Chamber of Deputies fell from the largest to the third largest; PRI
fell to the second largest delegation in the Senate. Although the PAN is the largest party
in both houses, it failed to win a majority. Given the tension between the PAN and PRD
stemming from the presidential election, some analysts believe the PRI will be influential
in the upcoming congress as the PAN delegation seeks additional votes to pass legislation.
Table 1. Chamber of Deputies Election Results
^PAN^P^RD^PRI^P^VE^M^C^onvergencia^P^T^N^A^A^lternativa
²⁰⁰³¹⁵³⁹⁵²²⁴¹⁷⁵⁶^—^—
²⁰⁰⁶²⁰⁶¹²⁵¹⁰⁵¹⁹¹⁶¹⁶⁹⁴

⁷ “PRI: What’s Going on in the South?,” Mexico & NAFTA, June 2006; “People Profile: Roberto
Madrazo Pintado,” LatinNews, Feb. 1, 2005; and, Roberto Madrazo campaign website
[http://www.mexicoconmadrazo.org], accessed June 20, 2006.
⁸ Roberto Madrazo campaign website [http://www.mexicoconmadrazo.org], accessed June 20,
2006; Mark Stevenson, “Mexico Stands at Crossroads on Energy Policy: Oil Boom May Lead
to Bust,” San Diego Union-Tribune, June 12, 2006; Manuel Roig-Franzia, “Mexican Presidential
Hopefuls Vow to Seek Immigration Pact,” Washington Post, June 7, 2006; and, Wilson Center
Mexico Institute, “Roberto Madrazo on Security Policy,” June 20, 2006.

Table 2. Senate Election Results
^PAN^P^RD^PRI^P^VE^M^a^Convergencia^P^T^a^NA^a
²⁰⁰⁰⁴⁶¹⁷⁶⁰⁵^—^—^—
²⁰⁰⁶⁵²²⁹³³⁶⁵²¹
^a.^P^V^E^M^=G^reen^E^c^o^l^o^gⁱ^cal^P^a^rt^y^,^P^T^=L^ab^o^r^P^a^rt^y^,^NA^=Nu^e^{va A}^lⁱ^aⁿ^z^a
Implications for U.S.-Mexico Relations
The United States and Mexico have a multifaceted relationship, with recent emphasis
on migration, border security, drug trafficking, trade, and energy policy. President-elect
Felipe Calderón is likely to continue Mexico’s advocacy for immigration reform in the
United States. Differences over migration policy and border security are likely to
continue to strain U.S.-Mexico relations. During the campaign, Calderón indicated his
support for legalization of Mexicans who have been illegally present in the United States
for five years. He also opposed construction of additional barriers along the U.S.-Mexican
border. In September 2006, President-elect Calderón charged that the border fence under⁹
consideration by the U.S. Congress will be ineffective in combating illegal immigration.
In October, the Mexican government officially requested that President Bush veto the
Secure Fence Act of 2006 (H.R. 6061) approved by Congress on September 29, 2006, that
would authorize construction of a border fence along 700 miles of the U.S.-Mexico
border. President Bush is expected to sign the bill and on October 4, 2006, signed the
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act for 2007, which provides $1.2
billion to build the fence. Calderón recently re-emphasized his support for the extradition
of drug kingpins to the United States and called for Mexico’s political parties to work
together to develop legislative and law enforcement solutions to the drug violence that
plagues Mexico.¹⁰
NAFTA stipulates further opening of agricultural trade in 2008, including the
sensitive bean and corn crops, causing concern in Mexico about the potentially adverse
effects on domestic production. President-elect Calderón indicated during the campaign
that he would address these concerns within the NAFTA framework, in contrast to López
Obrador’s call to re-open NAFTA negotiations. President-elect Calderón has also
proposed the opening of Mexico’s oil industry to private investment.
President-elect Felipe Calderón pledged to continue the active foreign policy pursued
by the Fox administration. During the campaign he expressed hope of restoring Mexico’s
ambassador to Venezuela. Calderón also presented himself as an alternative regional
influence to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. His first trip abroad as president-elect,
in early October, was to nine Central and South American nations. Calderón has
indicated that he will re-orient Mexico’s foreign policy to emphasize its relationships with¹¹

its southern neighbors.
⁹ “Mexico’s Calderón Rips Border Wall Plan,” Associated Press, Sept. 25, 2006.
¹⁰ “Mexican President-Elect Decries Violence,” Associated Press, Sept. 27, 2006.
¹¹ “Mexico: Calderón Starts International Trip,” LatinNews Daily, Oct. 3, 2006.