Poland: Background and Policy Trends of the Kaczynski Government
Poland: Background and Policy Trends of the
Kaczynski Government
Carl Ek
Specialist in International Relations
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
Poland held presidential and parliamentary elections in the fall of 2005. After
several months, a ruling coalition consisting of three populist-nationalist parties was
formed; the presidency and prime minister’s post are held by Lech and Jaroslaw
Kaczynski, identical twin brothers who have increasingly consolidated their power.
Their government’s nationalist policies have caused controversy domestically, in both
the political and economic arenas, and in foreign relations as well. Relations with some
neighboring states and the European Union have been strained at times, but ties with the
United States have not undergone significant change. Some observers believe that a
recent dispute within the coalition may spark early elections. This report may be
updated as events warrant. See also CRS Report RL32967, Poland: Foreign Policy
Trends, and CRS Report RL32966, Poland: Background and Current Issues, both by
Carl Ek.
Political Situation
Poland has had an eventful political evolution in recent years. Since 2001, five
prime ministers have held office. Although the last government, led by the Democratic
Left Alliance (SLD), steered the nation into the EU and nurtured a strong, export-based
economy, its reputation was seriously damaged by a series of high-profile scandals.1 In
Poland’s last parliamentary elections, held in September 2005, voters registered their
disappointment and the SLD suffered defeat — maintaining Poland’s post-1989 track
record of turning out the ruling party.2 Although polls during the campaign suggested that
the centrist, pro-market Civic Platform (PO) would take the most votes, the nationalist
1 See CRS Report RL32966, Poland: Background and Current Issues, by Carl Ek.
2 “The Twins’ New Poland.” Timothy Garton Ash. New York Review of Books. February 9,
conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) wound up winning a plurality seats in the lower
house of parliament, the Sejm.3 During the campaign, PiS emphasized family values and
social justice and pledged to assert Poland’s interests internationally. PiS portrayed itself
as the agent for change that would bring about a new era in Poland, and spoke of creating
a “Fourth Republic.”4 True to its name, Law and Justice has placed priority on improving
the judicial system and aggressively rooting out corruption. Although conservative in
outlook on most social issues, PiS favors social spending and distrusts privatization —
and especially foreign ownership — of certain “strategic” state assets.
PiS was founded in 2001 by identical twin brothers, Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski.
Former Warsaw mayor Lech became the successful PiS presidential candidate, defeating
PO’s Donald Tusk in an October 2005 runoff vote. The victory surprised many, as Tusk
had held a strong lead in the polls. The two men had served together in the Solidarity
party in the 1990s, but their brands of conservatism differed — a reflection of their
parties’ orientations. Kaczynski, for example, espoused economic nationalism and active
government intervention, while Tusk believed that further market-based reforms would
ensure prosperity. Analysts attribute the election results to voter approval of Kaczynski’s
strong anti-corruption policies; his support came mainly from older and less affluent Poles
in rural areas, while Tusk appealed to younger and urban voters.
Jaroslaw initially declared that he would not serve as prime minster; analysts argue
that he did so before the presidential elections in the hopes of helping Lech by defusing
potential voter unease over having two siblings run the country. The premiership went
instead to Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz. In mid-July 2006, however, Marcinkiewicz, the
country’s most-trusted office-holder, stepped down; some observers believe that the
Kaczynskis, concerned over Marcinkiewicz’ growing popularity and independence, may
have engineered his departure. In addition, Marcinkiewicz was said to be frustrated that
he had not been consulted over recent cabinet changes. After Lech named his twin
brother to replace Marcinkiewicz, an opinion poll showed that only 21% of the public
approved the appointment of Jaroslaw, whom many viewed as “divisive.”5
After the elections, PiS and PO were expected to form a coalition, but talks soon
collapsed. PiS initially decided to rule from a minority position, with informal support
from two smaller parties — the rural-based Self Defense (SO) party led by populist
Andrzej Lepper, and the League of Polish Families (LPR), an ultra-conservative party
aligned with the Catholic church. In April 2006 the three parties entered into a formal
coalition with a majority in parliament. The formation of the coalition has had both
domestic and continental repercussions: Poland’s Foreign Minister tendered his
3 PiS received 155 seats in parliament, PO 133, Self-Defense 56, SLD 55, LPR 34, and the Polish
Peasant Party 25. In addition, two seats were reserved for Poland’s German minority.
4 The first republic dated from the period before the country was partitioned by European powers
in the 18th century; the second came between the First and Second World Wars, and the third
began after the collapse of communism.
5 “Poll: Few Poles Like New Premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski.” AP. July 17, 2006. “Polish Twins
Alienating Voters and Neighbors.” New York Times. July 20, 2006.
resignation in protest, and in June, the European Parliament stated that the leaders of LPR
“incite people to hatred and violence.”6
In September 2006, amid budget disagreements, SO left the coalition, but rejoined
the government a few weeks later. Over the following months, additional high level
government officials either resigned or were sacked, and the Kaczynskis reportedly
consolidated their power by appointing loyalists to those posts.7 On July 9, 2007, Lepper
was dismissed from his cabinet posts on corruption charges, but SO remained in the
coalition for the time being. Out of concern that they would either lose seats or be unable
to muster enough votes to pass the 5% minimum threshold necessary to stay in
parliament, SO and LPR merged to form the League and Self Defense Party (LiS). The
new party then proposed conditions for remaining in the coalition. On July 30, PiS
rejected those terms. Observers believe the dispute will be resolved after August 22,
when parliament reconvenes after recess. Early elections are possible.
Economic Conditions8
Poland’s economy is among the most successful transition economies in east central
Europe; all of the post-1989 governments have generally supported free-market reforms.
Today the private sector accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity. In recent
years, Poland has enjoyed rapid economic development; GDP grew by 3.4% in 2005 and
5.3% in 2006, and is predicted to rise by 6.3% in 2007. Unemployment, though still high
at 12.4% in July 2007, is at its lowest level in several years.
To keep a lid on the federal budget deficit, PiS has been struggling with its coalition
partners, who have sought additional funding for social programs. In the area of monetary
policy, some analysts are concerned over PiS’s apparent willingness to reduce the
independence of the country’s central bank. Leszek Balcerowicz, the respected former
governor of the bank, criticized the desire of some in government to push for a reduction
in interest rates; under his leadership, the bank geared its policies toward meeting the
criteria for joining the euro, whereas PiS and its allies reportedly wished to stimulate
demand and growth through rate cuts. Unlike several new EU members, the Polish
government has not yet set a firm target date for adopting the euro; Prime Minister
Kaczynski stated that “it is very risky and that is why I think we can only consider it when
the economy has significantly strengthened.” Warsaw reportedly asked Brussels for
additional time to bring down its deficit so that it may continue to receive EU assistance
and eventually be able to qualify for euro adoption. In January 2007, Balcerowicz’ term
expired, and parliament approved Slawomir Skrzypek, a Kaczynski ally with little
experience in monetary policy, as the new central banker. In July 2007, he announced the
creation of an office to study the costs and benefits of joining the eurozone; in the
meantime, Mr. Skrzypek said, the central bank would remain neutral on the issue.9
6 “Stung By EU Judgement, Poland Has a Rebuttal.” International Herald Tribune (IHT). June
7 “Poland: Packing Cabinet With Loyalists Risks Split.” Oxford Analytica. February 13, 2007.
8 Economic data are drawn from various sources, including EIU and wire service articles.
9 “Poland Economy: Central Bank Stooge?” EIU Viewswire. January 4, 2007. “Poland Alters
(continued...)
Despite its center-right label, PiS has been characterized as having a somewhat statist
approach toward governance, particularly in its economic policies. For example, it
espouses that “national champions” in certain sectors be identified and nurtured. In
addition, some have speculated that PiS may seek to overturn earlier, SLD-approved
reforms that sought to introduce greater flexibility in the labor code. Also, PiS reportedly
would like to introduce vertical integration of the parts of the energy sector that are still
owned by the state. To reduce dependence upon Russia, which supplies a large part of
Poland’s gas and oil, the government has instituted talks with Norway over laying a
pipeline and constructing LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals on the Baltic coast. In
addition, Poland and the Baltic states are exploring a joint nuclear power project.10
Foreign and Security Policy
Over the past two years, Poland has contributed a significant number of troops to the
U.S.-led operation in Iraq. Observers note that the deployment is providing the Polish
military with invaluable experience, not the least of which includes commanding a
multinational division. However, Poland’s presence in Iraq remains unpopular at home.
The government has said that Poland will maintain its 900 troops there until the end of
2007. Poland also has sharply stepped up the size of its contingent of soldiers in
Afghanistan, to 1,000. In addition, Warsaw contributed 260 troops to the U.N.
peacekeeping mission in Lebanon.
Poland has been a member of the European Union (EU) since May 2004 and has
already experienced economic benefits from membership, particularly in the agricultural
sector. Nevertheless, the Polish government was not reluctant to assert itself in a number
of issue areas before joining the EU, and has been even less hesitant to do so now that it
is a member. The new Polish government has sometimes been skeptical of the EU. It
favors the eventual widening (to include Ukraine and Belarus) but not necessarily the
deepening of the Union.
At an EU meeting in Berlin in early 2006, Poland declined to support a plan to craft
an energy agreement with Russia, which in January 2005 had temporarily halted gas
deliveries to Ukraine and disrupted deliveries to Europe. Poland proposed instead the
creation of an energy security treaty among EU and NATO countries, which would not
include Russia, but would acknowledge that Russia would remain a major supplier. Some
European analysts argued that Russia should be excluded, as it supplies such a large part
of Europe’s energy. However, citing past instances of energy cutoffs, Poland contended
that Russia is unreliable. In November 2006, frustrated over Russia’s energy policies and
its year-long Russian ban on Polish agricultural products, Warsaw vetoed talks over the
renewal of an EU-Russia partnership agreement.11
9 (...continued)
Stance On Euro.” Financial Times (FT). July 27, 2007.
10 “Poland: Country Outlook.” EIU. February 13, 2006. “Poland Looks At Norway As Energy
Alternative To Russia.” IHT. January 27, 2006. “Poland Looking To Diversify Its Energy
Sources.” IHT. October 27, 2006.
11 “Polish Chief Bears a New Vision of EU To Berlin.” IHT. March 8, 2006. “Twins Together,
(continued...)
In 2007, attention focused on Poland’s efforts to influence the EU voting system,
which was under revision as part of a new treaty for the Union. Warsaw maintained that
the proposed formula was skewed toward the largest countries, and proposed instead that
voting strength be based upon the square root of each country’s population; only the
Czech Republic supported Poland’s solution, which the Kaczynskis claimed was “worth
dying for.” During the negotiations, Prime Minister Kaczynski also argued that Poland’s
population would have been 66 million rather than the current 38 million had it not been
for Germany’s World War II invasion and occupation. A compromise — a delay of the
introduction of the new formula — was reached eventually. Warsaw later stated that it
would seek to revisit the voting issue during Portugal’s EU presidency, but then backed
away from that demand. Poland’s behavior during the negotiations came in for strong
criticism. According to the Financial Times, Jean-Claude Junker, Prime Minister of
Luxembourg, “said Poland’s stance at last week’s summit was ‘very near to having been
unaccept abl e.’”12
Under the new government Poland’s relations with Germany and Russia have been
strained at times. Many Polish officials were incensed over the Russo-German agreement
to construct a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea, rather than overland, through
the Baltics and Poland. During the 2005 presidential campaign, Lech Kaczynski said that,
if elected, he would maintain a “firm but friendly” relationship with Russia. He also
reminded Poles of the devastation wrought by Germany during World War II, but denied
that raising this issue was an attempt to influence the election outcome. In June 2006, the
German newspaper Tageszeitung ran a satire on the Kaczynski brothers. The Polish
government demanded that the German government take action against the newspaper and
apologize for the article, but Berlin, citing freedom of the press, responded that
intervention would be illegal and an apology inappropriate. The article is believed to have
prompted Lech to cancel his attendance of a summit meeting with France and Germany.13
Relations with the United States
Poland and the United States have historically close relations. Since 9/11, Warsaw
has been a reliable supporter and ally in the global war on terrorism and, as noted earlier,
has contributed troops to the U.S.-led coalitions in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Poland also
has cooperated with the United States on “such issues as democratization, nuclear
proliferation, human rights, regional cooperation ... and UN reform.”14 During Prime
11 (...continued)
Poles Apart.” The Economist. October 29, 2005. “Poland Politics: The Awkward European.”
EIU Viewswire. November 14, 2006. “Poland Warns On EU-Moscow Partnership.” FT.
November 13, 2006.
12 “At Talks On Europe’s Charter, A Crisis Is Averted, For Now.” New York Times. June 23,
13 “Polish Leader Names Twin As Prime Minister.” IHT. July 11, 2006. “Poland’s President
Says ‘Shadow’ Hangs Over Relations With Germany.” AP. August 30, 2006.
14 U.S. Department of State. Background Note: Poland. March, 2007.
Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s September 2006 visit to Washington, D.C., Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice described the two countries as “the best of friends.”15
Early in 2007, after years of informal discussions, the Bush Administration began
formal negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic over a proposal to establish
missile defense facilities on their territory to protect against missiles from countries such
as Iran and North Korea; the plan would entail placing tracking radar in the Czech
Republic and interceptor launchers in Poland. If agreements are struck, and if the Polish
and Czech parliaments approve the projects, construction on the sites would likely begin
in 2008, with initial deployments expected in 2011. Some Poles believe their country
should receive additional security guarantees in exchange for assuming a larger risk of
being targeted by rogue state missiles because of the presence of the U.S. launchers on
their soil. In addition, many Poles are concerned about Russia’s response. The Polish
government reportedly has been requesting that the United States provide batteries of
Patriot missiles to shield Poland against short- and medium-range missiles.16 Polls show
the Polish public is opposed to such a base. Nevertheless, during a July 2007 meeting in
Washington, D.C. with President Bush, President Lech Kaczynski reportedly indicated
continued support for the program, and also emphasized the need to bolster Poland’s
security.
In September 2006, President Bush publicly acknowledged the existence of a secret
CIA program to detain international terror suspects worldwide. Earlier media reports
alleged that Poland and Romania were among the countries that had hosted secret CIA
prisons, although officials of both governments have denied these allegations. A
European Parliament probe conducted throughout 2006 cited no clear proof of prison sites
in Europe, but could not rule out the possibility that Romania had hosted detention
operations by U.S. secret services. However, in June 2007 a Council of Europe report
claimed to have evidence that U.S. detention facilities had been based in the two
countries. President Kaczynski has stated that, since he assumed office, “there has been
no secret prison — I am 100 percent sure of it,” and that he had been “assured there were
never any in the past either.”17
Some Poles have argued that, despite the human casualties and financial costs their
country has borne in Iraq and Afghanistan, their loyalty to the United States has gone
largely unrewarded. Many have hoped that the Bush Administration would respond
favorably by providing increased military assistance and particularly by changing its visa
policy, which currently requires Poles to pay a $100 non-refundable fee, and then submit
to an interview at a U.S. embassy or consulate — requirements that are waived for most
western European countries.
15 “Prime Minister’s Visit Highlights Poland’s Growing Role As U.S. Ally.” State Department
Press Releases and Documents. September 14, 2006.
16 “Sikorski Exit Is Bad For MD Bid.” Oxford Analytica. February 8, 2007. “Bush Persists On
Placement Of European Missile Defense.” Washington Post. July 17, 2007. For additional
information, see CRS Report RL34051, Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe.
17 “Reports of Secret U.S. Prisons In Europe Draw Ire and Otherwise Red Faces.” New York
Times. December 1, 2005. “European Aided US Renditions.” FT. June 8, 2007. “Inquiry Finds
Evidence of Secret Prisons CIA Ran Facilities In Romania and Poland, European Agency
Reports.” IHT. June 9, 2007.