Iraqi Civilian Casualtiess Estimates






Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress



This report presents various governmental and non-governmental estimates of Iraqi civilian
deaths. The Department of Defense (DOD) regularly updates total U.S. military deaths statistics
from Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), as reflected in CRS Report RS21578, Iraq: U.S. Casualties,
by Susan G. Chesser. However, no Iraqi or U.S. government office regularly releases publically
available statistics on Iraqi civilian deaths. Statistics on Iraqi civilian deaths are sometimes
available through alternative sources, such as nonprofit organizations, or through statements
made by officials to the press. Because these estimates are based on varying time periods and
have been created using differing methodologies, readers should exercise caution when using
these statistics and should look on them as guideposts rather than as statements of fact. See also
CRS Report RS22532, Iraqi Police and Security Forces Casualties Estimates, by Hannah Fischer.
This report will be updated as needed.






Government Estimates of Iraqi Civilian Deaths..............................................................................1
Other Estimates of Iraqi Civilian Deaths.........................................................................................3
Figure 1. Estimated Iraqi Civilian Deaths, January 2006 to August 2008......................................1
Table 1. Other Iraqi Civilian Dead and Wounded Estimates...........................................................3
Author Contact Information............................................................................................................5






The Department of Defense (DOD) has not released a composite estimate of Iraqi civilian deaths
during Operation Iraqi Freedom. However, in the report Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,
it has released a chart containing two separate estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths from January 1
2006 to August 2008. The first estimate is derived from a compilation of coalition and Iraqi
reports of civilian deaths while the second estimate is derived from the Iraq Significant Activities
(SIGACTS) III database, which includes coalition reports only. The DOD noted in the December
2007 update of Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq that “host nation reports capture some
types of deaths on which the Coalition does not have visibility, in particular, murders and deaths 2
in locations where Coalition forces are not present.”
While the chart provides a guideline to Iraqi civilian deaths trends, the specific data used to create
the chart have not been released. Using the DOD chart as a guideline, therefore, CRS has
reproduced an approximation of the original chart in the figure below.
Figure 1. Estimated Iraqi Civilian Deaths, January 2006 to August 2008

Coalition and Iraqi ReportsCoalition Reports Only
4000
3500
3000a t hs
2500
2000ted De
1500ma
1000s ti
500E
0
06 06 r-06 r-06 -06 06 l-06 06 06 -06 6 6 07 07 r-07 r-07 -07 07 l-07 07 07 -07 7 7 08 08 r-08 r-08 -08 08 l-08 08
Jan- Feb- Ma Ap May Jun- Ju Aug- Sep- Oct Nov-0 Dec-0 Jan- Feb- Ma Ap May Jun- Ju Aug- Sep- Oct Nov-0 Dec-0 Jan- Feb- Ma Ap May Jun- Ju Aug-
Date
Source: CRS rendition of DOD graph, as derived from Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010_Report_to_Congress_Sep_08.pdf. Multi-National Corps - Iraq
Strategic Plans Assessments Iraq Significant Activities (SIGACTS) III database (Coalition Reports Only) and
(Coalition and Iraqi Reports) as of August 2008.

1 U.S. Department of Defense, Multi-National Corps-Iraq, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq: September 2008
Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2007 (Section 9010), June 2008,
p. 22, at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010_Report_to_Congress_Sep_08.pdf.
2 U.S. Department of Defense, Multi-National Corps-Iraq, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq: December 2007
Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2007 (Section 9010), December
2007, p. 18, at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/FINAL-SecDef%20Signed-20071214.pdf.





For some time, the United Nations has attempted to release comprehensive statistics on Iraqi
civilian deaths. From August 2005 to March 2007, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq
(UNAMI) published a series of quarterly reports on human rights in Iraq that included sections on
Iraqi civilian casualties. On April 25, 2007, however, the Iraqi government announced its 3
intention to cease providing civilian casualty figures to the United Nations. Ivana Vuco, a UN
human rights officer, stated, “[Iraqi] government officials had made clear during discussions that 4
they believed releasing high casualty numbers would make it more difficult to quell unrest.” The
UNAMI report on human rights released on October 11, 2007 and concerning the period between
April - June 2007 expressed regret that “for this reporting period, [UNAMI] was again unable to
persuade the Government of Iraq to release data on casualties compiled by the Ministry of Health
and its other institutions. UNAMI continues to maintain that making such data public is in the 5
public interest.” UNAMI did not publish another human rights report until December 2, 2008,
when it issued a report covering the human rights situation in Iraq from January 1, 2008 – June 6
30, 2008. This latest report provides a list of instances of bombings in which civilians were
killed, but does not give a comprehensive estimate of civilian deaths. The report’s first
recommendation to the government of Iraq is to “Issue on a regular basis mortality data compiled
by the Ministry of Health, based on information received from all governorates and statistics kept
at the Medico-Legal Institute in Baghdad, together with details of the methodology used to 7
calculate the figures.”
In a November 2008 statement in front of the United Nations Security Council, Ambassador
Zalmay Khalilzad announced that the security situation in Iraq had “significantly improved since 8
June 2007.” According to the Ambassador, the number of overall attacks since June 2007 had
decreased by 86% and Iraqi civilian deaths due to violence had decreased by 84% in the same
time period. The non-profit Iraq Body Count also reported a decrease in civilian deaths in 2008;
according to their database, 8,315-9,028, or approximately 25 people a day, Iraqi civilians died 9
due to violence in 2008. By comparison, 22,671-24,295 (or approximately 67 a day) civilian
deaths were added to their database in 2007, and 25,774-27,599 civilian deaths (or approximately

76 a day) were added in 2006.


However, the reported decrease has not been entirely consistent on a month-to-month basis. The
New York Times reports that the Iraqi Health Ministry counted a total of 148 civilian deaths for 10
November 2008, compared with 118 deaths in October and 156 in September.

3 Tina Susman, “Iraq won’t give casualty figures to U.N.,” Chicago Tribune, April 26, 2007, p.12.
4 Ibid.
5 United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq, Human Rights Report, 1 April - 20 June 2007, at http://www.uniraq.org/
FileLib/misc/HR%20Report%20Apr%20Jun%202007%20EN.pdf.
6 United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq, Human Rights Report, 1 January – 30 June 2008, at
http://www.uniraq.org/documents/UNAMI_Human_Rights_Report_January_June_2008_EN.pdf.
7 United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq, Human Rights Report, 1 January – 30 June 2008, at
http://www.uniraq.org/documents/UNAMI_Human_Rights_Report_January_June_2008_EN.pdf, p. 3.
8 Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, “Statement by Ambassador Khalilzad on Situation in Iraq: Ambassadors Report to
U.N. Security Council on Multi-National Force in Iraq,” November 14, 2008, http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-
english/2008/November/20081114135331eaifas0.3025934.html.
9 Iraq Body Count,Post-surge violence: Its extent and nature,” December 28, 2008, at
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/surge-2008/.
10 Alissa J. Rubin, “Civilian death toll in Iraq increased in November,” International Herald Tribune, December 2,
2008.






Table 1, below, provides Iraqi civilian dead and wounded estimates from non-governmental
sources. These estimates are based on varying time periods and have been created using differing
methodologies, and therefore readers should exercise caution when using these statistics.
Table 1. Other Iraqi Civilian Dead and Wounded Estimates
Iraq Body Count 90,253 - 98,521a
March 19, 2003 - January 7, 2009
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count 44,276b
April 28, 2005 - January 7, 2009
Brookings Iraq Index 108,707c
May 2003 - January 5, 2009
The Associated Press 44,971 deadc c
April 2005 - January 5, 2009 51,540 wounded
The Iraq Family Health Study (the “WHO study”) 151,000e
March 2003 - June 2006
The Lancet, “Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq” 426,369 - 793,663f
March 19, 2003 - July 31, 2006
Source: Prepared by CRS with data from noted sources.
a. Iraq Body Count, January 7, 2009, at http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
b. Iraq Coalition Casualties Count, January 7, 2009, at http://icasualties.org/oif/iraqideaths.aspx.
c. Brookings, “Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq,” January 5,
2009, at http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf.
d. CRS communication with Associated Press, January 5, 2009.
e. Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group, “Violence-Related Mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006,” The New
England Journal of Medicine, January 31, 2008, pp. 484-492.
f. Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy et al., “Mortality After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-
Sectional Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, October 21, 2006, 368 (9545), pp. 1421-1429.
Three cluster studies of violence-related mortality in Iraq have recently been undertaken. The first
two studies were both conducted by researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Baghdad’s
Al-Mustansiriya University and are commonly referred to in the press as “the Lancet studies”
because they were published in the British medical journal of that name. The third study was
conducted by a consortium of researchers, many of whom are associated with the World Health
Organization, and so the study is commonly referred to as “the WHO study” in the press.
The first of these studies, published in 2004, used a cluster sample survey of households in Iraq to
develop an estimate ranging from 8,000 to 194,000 civilian casualties due to violent deaths since 11
the start of the war. This report has come under some criticism for its methodology, which may
not have accounted for the long-term negative health effects of the Saddam Hussein era. Former

11 Les Roberts, Ridyah Lafta, Richard Garfield et al., “Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster
Sample Survey,” The Lancet, October 29, 2004, 364 (9448), pp. 1857-1864.





British Foreign Minister Jack Straw has written a formal Ministerial Response rejecting the 12
findings of the first Lancet report on the grounds that the data analyzed were inaccurate.
The second study, published in 2006, increased the number of clusters surveyed from 33 to 47
and reported an estimate of between 426,369 and 793,663 Iraqi civilian deaths from violent 13
causes since the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. This article, too, has sparked some 14
controversy. Stephen Moore, a consultant for Gorton Moore International, objected to the
methods used by the researchers, commenting in the Wall Street Journal that the Lancet article
lacked some of the hallmarks of good research: a small margin of error, a record of the
demographics of respondents (so that one can be sure one has captured a fair representation of an 15
entire population), and a large number of cluster points. On the other hand, documents written
by the UK Ministry of Defence’s chief scientific advisor have come to light, which called the 16
survey’s methods “close to best practice” and “robust.”
In the third and most recent study, a team of investigators from the Federal Ministry of Health in
Baghdad, the Kurdistan Ministry of Planning, the Kurdistan Ministry of Health, the Central
Organization for Statistics and Information Technology in Baghdad, and the World Health
Organization formed the Iraq Family Health Survey (IFHS) Study Group to research violence-17
related mortality in Iraq. In their nationally representative cluster study, interviewers visited
89.4% of 1,086 household clusters; the household response rate was 96.2%. They concluded that
there had been an estimated 151,000 violence-related deaths from March 2003 through June 2006
and that violence was the main cause of death for men between the ages of 15 and 59 years
during the first three years after the 2003 invasion. This study seems to be widely cited for
violence-related mortality rates in Iraq. Neither the Lancet studies nor the IFHS study make an
effort to distinguish different victims of violence, such as civilians versus police or security force
members.
The Associated Press has kept a database of Iraqi civilian and security forces dead and wounded
since April 2005. According to its database, between April 2005 and January 5, 2009, 44,971 Iraqi 18
civilians have died and 51,540 have been wounded.
A number of nonprofit groups have released unofficial estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths. The Iraq
Body Count (IBC) is one source often cited by the media; it bases its online casualty estimates on
media reports of casualties, some of which may involve security forces as well as civilians. As of
January 7, 2009, the IBC estimated that between 90,253 and 98,521 civilians had died as a result

12 Jack Straw, Written U.K. Ministerial Statement Responding to a Lancet Study on Iraqi Casualty Numbers, November
16, 2004, at http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/newsroom/latest-news/?view=News&id=1541252.
13 Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy et al., “Mortality After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-Sectional
Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, October 21, 2006, 368 (9545), pp. 1421-1429.
14 Sabrina Tavernise and Donald G. McNeil, Jr., “Iraqi Dead May Total 600,000, Study Says,” New York Times,
October 11, 2006, p. A16.
15 Steven E. Moore, “655,000 War Dead?,Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2006, p. A20.
16 Newsday, “High Death Toll Backed,” March 27, 2007, p. A25.
17 Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group, “Violence-Related Mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006,” The New England
Journal of Medicine, January 31, 2008, pp. 484-492.
18 CRS discussion with Associated Press, August 10, 2008.





of military action.19 The IBC documents each of the casualties it records with a media source and
provides a minimum and a maximum estimate.
The Brookings Institution has used modified numbers from the UN Human Rights Report, the
Iraq Body Count, General Petraeus’s congressional testimony given on September 10-11, 2007,
and other sources to develop its own composite estimate for Iraqi civilians who have died by
violence. By combining all of these sources by date, the Brookings Institution estimates that 20
between May 2003 and January 5, 2009, 108,707 Iraqi civilians have died.
Finally, the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (ICCC) is another well-known nonprofit group that
tracks Iraqi civilian and Iraqi security forces deaths using an IBC-like method of posting media
reports of deaths. ICCC, like IBC, is prone to the kind of errors likely when using media reports
for data: some deaths may not be reported in the media, while other deaths may be reported more
than once. The ICCC does have one rare feature: it separates police and soldier deaths from
civilian deaths. The ICCC estimates that there were 44,276 civilian deaths from April 28, 2005 21
through January 7, 2009.
Hannah Fischer
Information Research Specialist
hfischer@crs.loc.gov, 7-8989



19 Iraq Body Count at http://www.iraqbodycount.net. IBC is a nongovernmental organization managed by researchers
and volunteers.
20 Brookings Institution, Iraq Index: Tracking Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq, January 5, 2009, p. 4,
at http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf.
21 Iraq Coalition Casualty Count at http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx. ICCC is a nongovernmental organization
managed by researchers and volunteers.