Poland's New Government: Background and Issues for the United States
Poland’s New Government: Background and
Issues for the United States
Carl Ek
Specialist in International Relations
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
After a governmental deadlock caused by intra-coalition squabbling, Poland held
snap parliamentary elections on October 21, 2007; the vote was seen by many as a
referendum on the governing style and policies of the then-ruling Law and Justice party.
Under that government, the presidency and prime minister’s post were held by twin
brothers Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Their government’s nationalist policies caused
controversy domestically and in the international arena as well. Many observers believe
that under the new center-right Civic Alliance-led government, domestic policies will
change more in tone than in substance. Poland’s relations with neighboring states and
the European Union are expected to improve, but ties with the United States may
become more complicated. This report may be updated as events warrant. See also CRS
Report RS22509, Poland: Background and Policy Trends of the Kaczynski Government.
Political Situation and Economic Conditions
In snap elections on October 21, 2007, Poles turned out the rightist Law and Justice
(PiS) party, which had ruled the country for a tumultuous 15 months.1 Led by identical
twins Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski, who served as Prime Minister and President,
respectively, PiS had held a slight lead in early polls, but an unusually strong performance
by opposition leader Donald Tusk in a nationally televised debate with Jaroslaw on
October 15 apparently convinced many Poles that they should turn the reins of
government over to Tusk and his party. On election day, Tusk’s center-right Civic
Alliance (PO) won a 41.5% plurality; PiS captured 32%, while the Left and Democrats
(LiD) picked up 13%, and the Polish Peasants’ Party received 8.9%.
The vote, held a full two years ahead of schedule, was prompted by the collapse of
the PiS-led government. After the late 2005 elections, the Kaczynskis’ party had ruled
1 “Official Results of Polish Election.” Reuters. October 23, 2007. Also see CRS Report
RS22509, Poland: Background and Policy Trends of the Kaczynski Government, by Carl Ek.
together with the populist-nationalist Self Defense (SO) party, and the League of Polish
Families (LPR), an ultra-conservative party aligned with the Catholic church. The two
smaller parties had at times blocked PiS initiatives. The coalition was dissolved in early
August 2007, when members of SO withdrew from the government after their leader,
Andrej Lepper, was fired from his cabinet post on bribery charges. When LPR also left
the coalition, PiS was left with just 150 members in the 460-seat lower house of
parliament, and decided to call elections in hopes of strengthening its mandate.
The decision to hold early elections proved to be a political miscalculation by
Jaroslaw, who underestimated popular dissatisfaction with his government and the
consequent determination of Poles to oust PiS. Turnout on election day was 55.3% —
the largest since the end of the communist era. This unprecedented voter participation,
particularly by young people, is considered to have been a key factor. Although PiS
received more votes in 2007 than it had in the 2005 elections, the increase came largely
at the expense of its former coalition partners, SO and LPD, neither of which managed
to pass the 5% threshold necessary for representation in parliament. In addition, the
increase in PiS votes was more than offset by the big jump in turnout — 15% over earlier
elections. Tusk’s party won 209 seats, and its coalition partner, the centrist Polish
Peasants Party, took 31; together, they hold a comfortable majority in parliament, and
Tusk was sworn in as Prime Minister in November 2007. However, the new government
will likely face staunch resistance on some issues from President Lech Kaczynski, whose
term runs until 2010. Since a 60% vote is necessary to override a presidential veto, the
government may need occasional help from the leftist LiD.2
Some analysts believe that the elections reflected a tug-of-war between the emerging
liberal (i.e., free-market) Poland, embodied by Tusk’s PO, and the Poland of “social
solidarity,” which advocates continued government intervention in the economy
represented by PiS. However, on a practical level, many Poles believed that, rather than
addressing needed reforms, PiS had embarrassed Poland internationally and had wasted
precious time and resources in its hunt to expose members of the so-called Uklad — the
“web” of former communist elites that the Kaczynski brothers were convinced had
manipulated successive governments from behind the curtain since 1989. In addition,
PiS’s conduct during the campaign was criticized by both domestic and international
media. The Financial Times, for example, claimed that the former ruling party “ ...
resorted to blatant abuse of power: dominating state television, threatening opponents
with legal action and using confidential police files to blacken rivals’ reputations.”
During October presidential debates, Tusk asserted that “Poles at home and abroad feel
ashamed for the last two years.”3
Some have argued that PO’s approach to governance — and to international relations
— likely will differ more in style than in content from the outgoing regime. PO’s
coalition partner, the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL), is a centrist party that seeks to advance
2 “Elections in Poland: Victory without a Clear Sense of Defeat.” Central Europe Digest. Center
for European Policy Analysis. October 31, 2007.
3 “The October 2007 Elections: A Victory for Liberal Poland?” Central Europe Digest. Center
for European Policy Analysis. November 15, 2007. “Poland’s Political Punch-up.” Financial
Times. October 18, 2007. “Kaczynski vs. Tusk: Debate Highlights.” Polish News Bulletin.
October 18, 2007. The Crazy Kaczynskis. Maclean’s. October 1, 2007.
rural interests. Some analysts have predicted that the coalition partners might disagree
on domestic proposals such as social security reforms and the introduction of a flat tax,
and over international issues, such as acceptance of proposed reductions in the EU’s
Common Agricultural Policy budget.4
Poland’s economy is among the most successful transition economies in east central
Europe; most of the post-1989 governments have generally supported free-market
reforms. Today the private sector accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity. In
recent years, Poland has enjoyed rapid economic development, and the economy has
performed well in spite of the political turmoil. GDP grew by 6.2% in 2006, around 6.6%
in 2007, and is predicted to rise by 5.2% in 2008. The employment picture has
brightened; though still high at 11.4% in December 2007, joblessness is at its lowest level
in several years. Analysts attribute the reduction to improved job prospects and also to
the emigration of 1-2 million Polish workers, mainly to other EU countries.5
Despite its center-right label, PiS was characterized as having somewhat statist
economic policies. For example, it espoused that “national champions” in certain sectors
be identified and nurtured. In addition, PiS sought to revise the previous, leftist
government’s reforms that had introduced greater flexibility in the labor code. However,
some observers contend that economic policy generally did not appear to be a priority for
PiS, perhaps because most of the major indicators were positive.
PO is often referred to in the media as “business-friendly.” In fiscal policy, the new
government may seek to curtail certain subsidies and redirect spending toward such areas
as education. For now, it has apparently backed away from its campaign promise to
institute a flat tax, as has been done in other countries in the region; such a plan would
have encountered resistance from the PSL. Instead, the government has opted to reduce
tax brackets from three to two. PO has also announced that it will seek to move ahead
with the privatization of state-owned enterprises, and to install competent managers —
rather than political cronies — in firms that remain under government control. Energy
is one area where PO will maintain some of the policies instituted by PiS. Although PO
is reportedly encouraging the resumption of privatization in the sector — which PiS
resisted — it will continue the policy of seeking to reduce dependence upon Russia,
which supplies a large part of Poland’s gas and oil. For example, the PiS government
instituted talks with Norway over laying a pipeline and constructing LNG (liquefied
natural gas) terminals on the Baltic coast. In addition, Poland and the Baltic states are
exploring a joint nuclear power project.6
4 “Poland’s Election Winners Reach Deal On Coalition.” Agence France Presse (AFP.) October
5 Country Report: Poland. Economist Intelligence Unit. February, 2008.
6 “Poland: Only PO Will Push Necessary Reforms.” Oxford Analytica. September 10, 2007.
“Poland Looks At Norway As Energy Alternative To Russia.” International Herald Tribune.
(IHT) January 27, 2006. “Poland Looking To Diversify Its Energy Sources.” IHT. October 27,
Foreign and Security Policy
Over the past three years, Poland has contributed a significant number of troops to
the U.S.-led operation in Iraq. Observers note that the deployment is providing the Polish
military with invaluable experience, not the least of which includes commanding a
multinational division. However, Poland’s presence in Iraq remains unpopular at home
— a recent poll showed 85% opposition to the deployment. To date, 21 Polish soldiers
have died in Iraq. During the fall election campaign, candidate Tusk pledged to pull out
Polish troops if elected; Jaroslaw Kaczynski countered that Poles were not “deserters or
cowards.” On December 18, 2007, the new government requested that Poland’s 900-
troop presence in Iraq be extended until October 2008, at which time the soldiers would
be withdrawn. Poland also has 1200 soldiers in Afghanistan — the new government
proposes an additional 400 be dispatched there, although polls show clear public
disapproval of the mission.7
Poland has been a member of the European Union (EU) since May 2004 and has
already experienced economic benefits from membership, particularly in the agricultural
sector. Nevertheless, Poland was not reluctant to assert itself in a number of issue areas
before joining the EU, and was even less hesitant to do so when it became a member.
Some analysts view the Poland-EU dynamic as the most important foreign policy issue
for the last government, as it highlighted the inward-turning, populist tendencies of PiS.
During its relatively short tenure, the Kaczynski government clashed with fellow EU
member states on a number of issues, including energy, banking rules, voting rights, the
death penalty, and Russia. In turn, Poland’s EU partners back Poland on some issues,
such as the meat ban, but not on others. Poland’s intransigence during the negotiations
over the EU reform treaty drew strong criticism. According to the Financial Times, Jean-
Claude Junker, Prime Minister of Luxembourg, “said Poland’s stance at [the June 2007]
summit was ‘very near to having been unacceptable.’”8 There may have been some
political backlash to behavior of the PiS government as Poles became increasingly aware
of the benefits of belonging to the EU — not only of the generous subsidies, but also of
unimpeded travel and trade; a post-election poll showed 72% approval of EU
membership. Prime Minister Tusk has indicated that he intends to consult more closely
with fellow members on EU matters. However, although the tone of its debates with the
EU may become less confrontational, Poland’s new government will continue to
staunchly defend Warsaw’s perceived interests vis-a-vis Brussels. For example, the
Polish Peasants Party reportedly will be negotiating budget reform of the Common
Agricultural Policy, and will seek to fend off cuts in subsidies. Nevertheless, according
to one analyst, Poland’s new government “will think twice before vetoing EU decisions.”9
7 “Polish Election Foes Go Head-to-head Over Iraq .” AFP. October 12, 2007. “Poland Prepares
Iraq Withdrawal For October 2008.” AFP. December 18, 2007. “Poland Raps NATO Members
Over Afghan Commitments.” Reuters. February 4, 2008.
8 “At Talks On Europe’s Charter, A Crisis Is Averted, For Now.” New York Times. June 23,
9 “The Polish Farewell — Charlemagne.” The Economist. December 1, 2007.”Poland’s Second
Return To Europe?” By Pawel Swieboda. European Council on Foreign Relations. December
The new government is set to cast a wider net internationally than its predecessor.
At a recent meeting with foreign diplomats in Warsaw, Tusk indicated that, in addition
to working more closely with the EU, his government will explore opportunities for
greater regional cooperation through such forums as the Weimar Triangle (Poland-France-
Germany), and the Visegrad Group (Poland-Slovakia-Hungary-Czech Republic). Poland
may also seek to cooperate on energy matters with Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan.
Finally, the Prime Minister announced he will travel to South America in 2008.10
Under the Kaczynski government, Poland’s bilateral relations with Germany and
Russia became strained at times. Poland raised alarm in the EU and NATO after Russia
temporarily cut gas supplies to Ukraine and other states in 2006 and 2007. Many Poles
were incensed over the Russo-German agreement to construct a natural gas pipeline
through the Baltic Sea, rather than overland, through the Baltic states and Poland. During
the 2005 presidential campaign, Lech Kaczynski said that, if elected, he would maintain
a “firm but friendly” relationship with Russia. He also reminded Poles of the devastation
wrought by Germany during World War II, but denied that raising this issue was an
attempt to influence the election outcome. In mid-2006, Lech cancelled his attendance
at a regional summit meeting after the German government, citing freedom of the press,
declined to apologize for a German newspaper article satirizing the Kaczynski brothers.11
Prime Minister Tusk has sought to effect a speedy improvement in relations with the
two countries. In December, he traveled to Germany, where he met with Chancellor
Angela Merkel. He also recruited Holocaust survivor and former foreign minister
Wladyslaw Bartoszewski as an advisor, and tasked him with mending ties with Berlin.
Several important bilateral issues, such as the proposed pipeline, are still pending, but the
new government appears to believe they can be better solved through cooperation rather
than confrontation. In his first major post-election address, Tusk mentioned the need for
greater dialog with Russia. After the new government was settled in, two actions seemed
to signal an improvement in relations: in late November, the Tusk government dropped
Poland’s objection to Russia joining the Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development, and the following month Russia announced that it would lift its two year-
old restrictions on the importation of Polish meat.
Relations with the United States
Poland and the United States have historically close relations. Under successive
governments since 9/11, Warsaw has been a reliable supporter and ally in the global war
on terrorism and, as noted earlier, has contributed troops to the U.S.-led coalitions in
Afghanistan and in Iraq. Poland also has cooperated with the United States on “such
issues as democratization, nuclear proliferation, human rights, regional cooperation ... and
UN reform.”12 During Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s September 2006 visit to
Washington, D.C., Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the two countries as
10 “Polish Premier Lists Foreign Policy Priorities.” BBC Monitoring European. January 30,
11 “Poland’s President Says ‘Shadow’ Hangs Over Relations With Germany.” Associated Press.
August 30, 2006.
12 U.S. Department of State. Background Note: Poland. November, 2007.
“the best of friends.” One month later, however, Tusk accused Kaczynski of servility
toward the United States. Immediately after the elections, Tusk said he hoped for “better
cooperation with the United States in which Poland will be a true partner.”13 Tusk
highlighted two areas in particular: the Iraq conflict (see above) and missile defense.
Early in 2007, the Bush Administration began formal negotiations with Poland and
the Czech Republic over a plan to establish missile defense facilities on their territory to
protect against missiles from countries such as Iran; the plan would entail placing radar
in the Czech Republic and interceptor launchers in Poland. Some Poles believe their
country would risk being targeted by rogue state missiles and terrorist attacks because of
the presence of the U.S. interceptors on their soil. In addition, many Poles are concerned
over Russia’s vehement objections to the proposal. Former Polish Defense Minister
Radek Sikorski reportedly pressed for a special security guarantee from the United States,
as well as for Patriot missiles to shield Poland against short- and medium-range missiles.14
In July 2007, President Kaczynski stated that a missile defense agreement “is largely
a foregone conclusion,” prompting some critics to fault him for approving the U.S. plan
without having ensured that Poland’s interests would be sufficiently addressed. After the
elections, Tusk was more circumspect about the plan, and there were indications that his
government might wish to delay an agreement until after the November 2008 U.S.
elections. On February 2, 2008, during a visit by now-Foreign Minister Sikorski to
Washington, D.C., U.S. Secretary of State Rice voiced support for strengthening Poland’s
air defenses. Although there was said to be agreement “in principle” on the missile
defense issue, it is not expected that an accord will be signed when Prime Minister Tusk
visits the United States in March.15
Finally, some Poles have argued that, despite the human casualties and financial
costs their country has borne in Iraq and Afghanistan, their loyalty to the United States has
gone largely unrewarded. Many have hoped that the Bush Administration would respond
favorably by providing increased military assistance and particularly by changing its visa
policy, which currently requires Poles to pay a $100 non-refundable fee, and then submit
to an interview at a U.S. embassy or consulate — requirements that are waived for most
western European countries, which qualify to be included in the Visa Waiver Program.16
13 “Prime Minister’s Visit Highlights Poland’s Growing Role As U.S. Ally.” State Department
Press Releases and Documents. September 14, 2006. “Polish Victor Demands Two-way Street
In US Ties.” AFP. October 23, 2007.
14 “Sikorski Exit Is Bad For MD Bid.” Oxford Analytica. February 8, 2007. See also CRS
Report RL34051, Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe. Sikorski, who never joined
PiS, resigned as defense minister in February 2007 after a disagreement with Jaroslaw. He
subsequently joined the PO and became foreign minister under the new government.
15 “Poland Says U.S. Shield a ‘Foregone Conclusion.’” Reuters. July 16, 2007. Poland Signals
Doubts About Planned U.S. Missile-Defense Bases On Its Territory. New York Times. January
16 For more information, see CRS Report RL32221, Visa Waiver Program, by Alison Siskin.